The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in October. The index now stands at 121.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in September and a 1.1 percent decline in August. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in October.
"The recent increases in the LEI and CEI suggest that the Brazilian economy is not likely to deteriorate further, and may even marginally improve in the coming months," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, a successful turnaround hinges on the ability of policy makers to restore consumer and investment confidence following the general elections."
Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Despite widespread weakness among the leading indicators, the decline in the six-month growth rates of the LEI and CEI has moderated, suggesting economic conditions could soon begin to stabilize. October's improvement in the LEI was driven primarily by better manufacturing and services expectations."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 127.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in September and a 0.4 percent increase in August. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.