The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.5 percent in October to 107.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 1.3 percent decline in August.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in October to 108.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent decline in August.
The LEI has been on a downward trend since March, and as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen into negative territory. However, in the past two months the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, the CEI has only improved marginally over the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue at its current moderate pace into early 2015, but downside risks still exist.